← Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.0% | -1.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 7 | 0-6-1 | 7.1% | 22.7% | 35.2% | -7.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.9% | +4.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Triskit | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Claw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |